By Jane Roh, NationalJournal.com
© National Journal Group Inc.
Monday, March 5, 2007

It may be odd to think of American conservatives as disenfranchised within the Republican Party, but a recent confab of the activist base in Washington revealed plenty of tender spots.

The conservative base hasn't gotten its way on near-and-dear issues like abortion, illegal immigration and campaign finance -- even after six years of Republican dominance in the nation's capital. Lest anyone believe that the base's resolve is sapped by stagnation in those areas, compounded by widespread pessimism on the Iraq war and President Bush's resounding unpopularity, conservatives themselves would like to remind everyone that reports of their movement's demise are greatly exaggerated.

Quite a few speakers at last weekend's annual Conservative Political Action Conference in D.C. said as much, while looking intently into cameras manned by the "mainstream" or "elite" media. But buried under all the enthusiasm was a sinking feeling shared by many: that the presidential candidate they coalesce behind a little more than a year from now may not be the candidate after their own hearts.

Dude, Where's My Candidate?
Republicans haven't been shy about voicing their discontent with the current crop of candidates. While the Democrats have superstars Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama to rally behind, no such clear GOP contender for the general election in 2008 has emerged. In one respect, that is not bad news for lesser-knowns like former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback, who have months to make their appeals to primary voters.

At the same time, as wannabes compete for cash, they are acutely aware that their time is limited. Inability to raise enough funds to be competitive has already felled one Democratic hopeful, former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack. During his address on Friday, Huckabee joked that "dude, where's my candidate?" was the unofficial theme of the weekend, and then sought to persuade CPAC attendees to consider him on his merits. "If celebrity and money are the criteria to be president of the United States, then Paris Hilton might be our next president," he said to laughter.

Consistent criticism of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is putting the GOP's top candidates on notice that they will have to mollify conservative voters or risk an insurrection. Attendees wore stickers and T-shirts touting a composite faux-candidate, "Rudy McRomney," and it was not clear whether any one campaign was behind this burgeoning movement.

Of the three, Romney has taken the most hits in the press for changing positions on abortion and gay rights in recent years. Unease with his stances was embodied by a 6-foot-tall "dolphin" wearing a shirt that read "Flip Romney" on the front. "Romney is just another flip-flopper from Massachusetts," said the dolphin (who would not give his real name), making an unfavorable comparison between the former governor and John Kerry. "I just want to tell people the truth about Romney," the dolphin said.

Jordan Greene, a 21-year-old Tufts University student attending the conference, said there was nothing Romney could do to win his vote. "On the four major conservative issues, he's changed his opinion in the past year and a half," Greene said. "Forget political experience -- I'm fine electing a one-term governor. What I'm not fine with is electing somebody who hasn't believed what he believes longer than I've believed what I believe."

Another attendee cited her unease about Romney, Giuliani and McCain as the reason she was backing the long-shot Huckabee. "I've not found another candidate that reflects my values as he does," said Brandy Hatfield, an 18-year-old Liberty University student. Hatfield said she did not know if she would vote for any of the top three if one of them won the nomination.

The vitriol toward McCain might be surprising to those who don't follow politics closely, but in some respects, it's a long time coming. Gone is the "Straight Talk Express" of 2000, which won the Vietnam war hero bipartisan admiration. McCain is now trying to make amends with religious conservatives, whom he criticized during the 2000 primaries when they backed Bush. And beyond doubting his sincerity, conservatives condemn McCain for the campaign finance reform bill that bears his name. That, plus his moderate views on detainees and immigration may cost him GOP base voters, while his backing of Bush's decision to send more troops to Iraq is turning off moderates in both parties.

During his address, Romney called out both the McCain-Feingold Act and the "McCain-Kennedy" immigration compromise. While improbable candidates like Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter were well-represented at CPAC thanks to their stands on illegal immigration, not a single sign, sticker or button for McCain was in sight at the three-day event.

"McCain just says what people want to hear, so I think maybe he should be called the flip-flopper," said Justin Goins, 19, who is backing Romney. "I don't trust McCain at all, because he sold out conservatives time and time again," said 47-year-old Bruce Jordan; the sense that McCain wasn't "one of us" was prevalent throughout CPAC's proceedings.

The Freaky-Friday Election
Romney has been campaigning as the true social-issues conservative of the top three, and during his Friday speech at CPAC, he described taming Massachusetts, a state that "became center stage for the liberal social agenda -- a sort of San Francisco East, Nancy Pelosi-style." Those are words conservatives would normally lap up, if only they were convinced that the candidate truly meant what he said about social issues.

Still, Romney came out the winner of CPAC's straw poll, garnering 21-percent support among the 1,705 participants who were asked to name their first choice for the nomination. Giuliani came in second with 17 percent, and McCain -- who, amid much criticism, didn't show up to the conference -- came in fifth with 12 percent. He was behind Brownback and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who hasn't decided whether to run. Gingrich and Giuliani tied as the most-named second choices.

Those results are telling. Giuliani has enough star power to be taken seriously, even as he is criticized for taking a lackadaisical approach to the campaign trail. And there are well-founded concerns among cultural conservatives that some of their top concerns will be eclipsed anyway by the war in Iraq, terrorism and domestic issues including health care and Social Security.

That could mean that many conservatives next fall could find themselves promoting the candidate they have, not the candidate they want. Republicans are famously effective at squashing internal dissent in the name of party unity, but Democratic voters, aching to beat Bush in 2004, arguably did the same with Kerry to no avail. This time around, Democrats are as enthusiastic for Obama, Clinton and, to some extent, former vice presidential contender John Edwards, as Republicans used to be about Bush. Additionally, congressional Democrats regained Congress in 2006 on the backs of independent voters, who are still siding with that party on major issues like Iraq.

Undoubtedly, the nomination of Giuliani, McCain or Romney would displease some base voters; conversely, it might be unfair to say that abortion, gay rights and the like are all those voters care about. And it is probably unfair to say that a primary narrative from the media -- Romney changes his mind, Giuliani is a closet liberal -- means voters won't be making up their own minds about the candidates.

Take Bruce Jordan, the Austin, Texas, conservative who returned to CPAC after a 30-year absence to back Giuliani. "He has made it very clear that he will be appointing strict constructionists to the court, and as important as pro-life is, there's the other issue of judges acting as legislators and usurping the power of the legislature," Jordan said, wearing a T-shirt that read "Former Embryo" and a button that read, "Giuliani For '08." "But the most important thing, before judges, is that we win in '08," Jordan added, "and Giuliani is the candidate with the leadership capabilities to win."

While Romney's camp was criticized for busing in student supporters -- and it was unclear whether their numbers skewed the straw poll results -- those backing him were also reading past the headlines.

"It's really strange that they keep calling him a flip-flopper," said 28-year-old Audrey Perry, a District resident. "I've researched this, I've looked into it deeply, and flip-flopping means you go back and forth on the issues. He's changed his mind about the issues."

Perry also wasn't scared off by Romney's Mormon faith, a point of fascination with the press. "He says he's not running for minister in chief, he's running for commander in chief," she said. "I just don't have a problem with it."