By Matthew E. Berger, NBC News/National Journal
© National Journal Group Inc.
Tuesday, Jan. 29, 2008

MIAMI -- With maracas in his hands, Rudy Giuliani snapped his wrists to the chants of "U.S.A." from his audience. Behind him were elderly mariachi dancers who had been tentatively shaking to the music just minutes before. And the words of a Spanish interpreter often garnered stronger applause than the former New York City mayor's original comments.

	Analysts believe Florida will be able to do what many other primaries have yet to do -- give a candidate momentum into the next round.

Giuliani's visit to the Little Havana Activity and Nutrition Center was not unique this month. Each of the presidential candidates made an effort to reach out to the Cuban-American community in Miami. They came, chastised Fidel Castro and hoped to garner another segment of Florida's diverse population.

But on other days, they could be found in evangelical churches, synagogues or massive retirement communities. The highways of Florida have been worn thin by candidate buses just as Iowa and New Hampshire roads were earlier in the campaign.

In many ways, Florida has become the new South Carolina -- the state Republican candidates hope will vault them to their party's nomination. While an Iowa victory put Mike Huckabee on the political landscape and New Hampshire resurrected John McCain's candidacy from the dead, the winner of today's Florida primary is believed to have the best opportunity to obtain the ultimate prize.

The state's size and diversity are helping it play a larger role in the political process this year. But so is the calendar. The winner of Florida's 57 delegates is expected to ride a week of positive press into the 21 states that vote on Feb. 5, increasing the odds that he can win important battleground states like California, New York and Illinois.

"If you do well in Florida, you'll do well on Super Tuesday," said John Feehery, a Republican strategist. "If you don't, you're over."

Giuliani, who has staked much of his campaign on a Florida victory, acknowledged as much, telling a dinner audience last week that "whoever wins in Florida will be the next nominee." His campaign strategists believe a Florida win, which would automatically vault him to the top of the delegate count, could bring him back into the race despite his having largely bypassed the early states.

Florida is used to playing a pivotal role in national politics, but it has largely been in November. The 2000 presidential race was decided by a recount of Florida votes and a Supreme Court case, and both parties fought hard for the state's electoral votes four years later, believing it, along with Ohio, would be a kingmaker.

These days, Florida is viewed as a microcosm of the nation, and that means it's hard to predict whether it will go Republican or Democratic each election year. The state has a popular Republican governor, but its Senate delegation is split. Analysts say success in Florida shows a candidate's appeal to a wide array of Republican voters and viability in the general election.

"It's the first big state that has been in the political batting order of this election," said Tom Slade, former chairman of the Republican Party of Florida. "Plus, Florida has more electoral votes than all of the states that have come before it combined."

In 2000, the nation was focused on wealthy Miami suburbs, which is where Giuliani is seeking much of his support this year. While campaigning in Miami, Huckabee drew many families with home-schooled children, while Giuliani draws large numbers of Cuban-Americans, Jewish Republicans and transplanted New Yorkers. McCain has found a natural base with military veterans, and Mitt Romney has garnered a wide swath of social and economic conservatives.

Slade said western Florida and the Orlando area could be a jump ball today between Romney and McCain, while McCain will have an edge up north.

The northern panhandle has a large evangelical community, while the Southeast has Cubans who fled Castro and New Yorkers who fled the cold. Midwesterners are more likely to flock to the state's western coast. Both coasts have wealthy enclaves, while the center of the state is more working class with a large non-Cuban Latino population.

"We've often been referred to as a state of four or five countries," Slade said. "You've got a sprinkling of everything that any political candidate could want."

That may be why it is the first contest where all of the Republican candidates are competing full throttle. Before Florida, each candidate has looked to focus on states where he has a natural base. Huckabee won in Iowa with strong support from evangelicals, and McCain utilized his name recognition from 2000 in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Romney's largest victory came in Michigan, where he was born and his father served as governor.

But no candidate could afford to bypass Florida.

The amount of time and attention Florida has gotten in the last few weeks has seemed to justify the risky move of placing its primary before Feb. 5. Several states tried to leapfrog Super Tuesday, hoping to give their local issues the type of prominence that Iowa and New Hampshire have traditionally enjoyed. But, Feehery said, Florida has gotten the most attention.

"Giuliani put the national catastrophe fund on the national agenda" by talking about it in Florida, he said. "That gives it a tremendous boost in Washington."

Moving the primary forward backfired on the Democrats. The national party stripped Florida of all of its delegates and the candidates are largely boycotting the state. But the Republican Party of Florida lost only half its delegates and grew its influence.

"If we've got to play with a tragically screwed up election system, I'm glad Florida is where it is in that mess," Slade said.

Florida also benefits from being a winner-take-all state, which means the victor will likely emerge with a lead in the delegate count. It's one of the first contests in which only registered Republicans can vote. And early voting is allowed in the state, giving candidates the opportunity to campaign here and urge voters to head to the polls that same day.

Turnout is expected to be high today, in part due to a proposition on the ballot to reform property taxes in the state, leading to tax reductions. Gov. Charlie Crist has been campaigning hard for the proposition.

Analysts believe Florida will be able to do what many other primaries have yet to do -- give a candidate momentum into the next round. Because of the size and significance of the Florida contest, and its proximity to Feb. 5, many have subscribed to the Giuliani philosophy that the winner will be the ultimate party nominee.

"I do acknowledge how important it is to win here in Florida and how much I'd like to win here," Romney said as he arrived in Jacksonville last week. "My guess is so would everybody else."

Erin McPike and Bethany Thomas contributed to this report.