By Mary Gilbert and Jessica Taylor, NationalJournal.com
© National Journal Group Inc.
Wednesday, Jan. 30, 2008

As more than 530,000 voters cast their ballots in Saturday's South Carolina Democratic primary -- nearly twice the number that voted in 2004 -- 1,700 students gathered in a gym-turned-convention hall in Lexington, Va., to crown New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton the victor in this year's contentious nominating contest. Hailed for its accuracy, Washington and Lee University's 100-year-old mock convention has correctly predicted the nominee for the out-of-office party nearly every election year since 1948. The only exception: 1972, when they picked Edward Kennedy over George McGovern.

Years of preparation and participation from nearly 95 percent of the student body were capped with two days of parading, stumping and orating from an array of Democratic leaders. But as Clinton was trounced by main rival Barack Obama in South Carolina just hours after the convention's close, W&L students may be nervous about preserving their reputation for accuracy this year. As the Democratic primary campaign goes national this week, conventional wisdom could quickly go out the window.

	As the campaign goes national over the next few weeks, conventional wisdom could quickly go out the window.

A Risky Prediction
The exercise at Washington and Lee wasn't a popularity contest to see which Democratic candidate students liked best. The cheers and applause that punctuated the proceedings indicated that Sen. Obama was the favorite of this largely conservative crowd. But state chairs have spent more than a year researching their assigned territory's political history and trends, keeping in close contact with journalists, pollsters and academics in order to predict how voters will swing on primary or caucus day.

Clinton's "nomination" wasn't assured until her adopted home state of New York cast 241 of its delegates for the junior senator, pushing her over the 2,025 threshold for the nomination with 2,117 delegates, beating Obama's 1,642. The delegate breakdown is reflective of a larger picture student organizers identified during a press conference at the close of the weekend.

"When it came down to it, Barack Obama had a lot of positives, and he had a lot of strengths in a lot of states. But what we saw from doing ground research was that Clinton was very strong in the really delegate-rich states in the Northeast and the Southwest, including California," political chairman Wesley Little pointed out. "From that standpoint, over a long, grueling race, she's the person to beat. She really has such strength in those areas that it's going to be hard for somebody like Barack Obama -- who is strong in the Midwest and strong in the South -- to take her over, just because of the delegate inequalities among those four regions."

With this year's front-loaded primary calendar, W&L students decided to take their predictions one step further. At the beginning of the month, they issued predictions for the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. Based on research and polling data, students predicted that Clinton would win in Iowa and that Obama would triumph in New Hampshire -- the reverse of what actually happened. But General Chairman Richard Friedman defended the erroneous predictions, saying they should not diminish Saturday's result. "We're very confident in our decision today, because it was a collaborative decision," he said. "Iowa and New Hampshire were the result of a very small, select group of individuals deciding on data that [were] arguably outdated and erroneous. When you consider the outcome of New Hampshire, compared to what all the polls were saying beforehand, it's hard to attribute those particular predictions to the main prediction."

Given his larger-than-expected margin of victory in South Carolina this weekend, however, Obama's support in Southern states may have been underestimated. If he is able to translate his support among blacks into decisive victories in other states with large black populations, the delegate battle could prove closer than W&L's state chairs anticipated. Additionally, the endorsement of Massachusetts Sen. Edward Kennedy, the Senate's liberal lion and keeper of the Kennedy clan's legacy, has serious potential to move votes among key constituencies that could put Obama within range of his chief rival.

Only moments after it was announced that Clinton had captured the mock nomination, a familiar surrogate, former President Bill Clinton, called in to receive the nod. He faced sharp criticism from many within the Democratic establishment (subscription) for his confrontational politicking in the lead up to South Carolina, but on Saturday, Clinton shied away from demeaning other candidates. Instead, he seemed to take a page from his wife's stump speech. Praising her experience and vision for America, Clinton promised that if Hillary were elected, she would restore economic opportunity and the nation's standing in the world.

Gender And Race, Again
With the weekend framed as a fight between Clinton and Obama, former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards was essentially missing in action. Speaker after speaker parsed the issues of gender and race and reiterated that this would be a history-making election. Addressing the crowd Friday afternoon, 1984 vice presidential candidate Geraldine Ferraro, the first woman ever on a national party ticket, summarized that theme: "Can you imagine waking up in a presidential race and for the first time finding that... being white and male is a disadvantage?"

Unabashed in her endorsement of Clinton, Ferraro heralded the opportunity to once and for all remove the "men only" sign from the Oval Office. She emphasized that choosing either a woman or a black person would be boundary-breaking.

"When a woman or a black [person] gets elected to any office, it's like a pebble thrown into a lake. It's like a ripple effect," she said. "The presidency is no mere pebble -- it is a boulder whose impact will be felt throughout the world." Ferraro's preference was clear: "If a woman can be president of the U.S., can you tell me any job women cannot do?"

Meanwhile, the Rev. Jesse Jackson highlighted the importance of race in the 2008 contest. "One America is a wonderful but elusive dream, but we're not there yet," he said. "South Carolina gives us a chance for redemption, a chance to overcome ancient barriers and build new bridges, a chance to overcome structural inequality," he said. Jackson is backing Obama, and while he has said he will not actively campaign for the Illinois senator in the primaries, his speech lauded the candidate. "Obama's played by all the rules: he's intelligent, worked hard, served in government, constitutional lawyer, scholar. All the things [George W.] Bush ain't, and he's been president twice."

Wanted: A Winner
After a close (and many believe wrongly awarded) election in 2000 and a disappointing run from John Kerry in 2004, Democrats' urgency to take back the White House is palpable this year. According to polls, their chances look good.

Opening the convention, Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine delivered a litany of reasons why he endorsed Obama for president, but said there was an ultimate motivation: "I want to win. None of us is doing this for our health." And during a fiery anti-war address on Friday night, former Georgia Sen. Max Cleland outlined a formula for determining election winners. There are only two issues that truly matter when it comes to taking the presidency, he said: war and peace and the economy. If an incumbent is viewed as strong on both issues, Cleland argued, his party will remain in office. If he leads on one of those issues, the race is a toss-up. But if the incumbent is seen as having failed on both of those fronts, it is virtually guaranteed that his party will pay the price.

But Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden warned his fellow liberals not to underestimate their opponents and emphasized that the party has to nominate the strongest candidate. It has been the historic role of the Democratic Party to understand the country's problems and to act to solve them, he said -- to help Americans choose hope over fear -- and that is what they have to do to prevail in this election.

A New New Deal
Another popular theme at the mock convention was the similarity between the challenges confronting the United States today and those it faced at the end of the 1920s and early 1930s -- foreign policy threats made worse by failed U.S. leadership on the international front and a rapidly tanking economy.

Cleland insisted that the U.S. is already in a "deflationary depression" and he invoked the message of former President Franklin Roosevelt when he said that the "common man and woman" are paying the price for the Bush administration's "disastrous policies." In a press conference following his address, Cleland maintained that the next president will have to "do things that haven't been done since" Roosevelt and that he or she, like FDR, will have to act quickly, within the first 100 days of office, to reassure the nation that a Democratic president will take action to help the average American.

Virginia Sen. Jim Webb told the audience that the country is fragmenting into three Americas: the wealthy, who under Bush have only grown wealthier; a middle class that is being squeezed to the breaking point; and an underclass that threatens to become entrenched because of bad economic and education policies. Webb, who delivered a widely praised Democratic response to Bush's 2007 State of the Union address, told reporters that the best way to stimulate the economy is to give Americans jobs shoring up the nation's crumbling infrastructure, as President Franklin D. Roosevelt did during the Great Depression.

The harshest criticism of the current administration's economic policy came from Jackson, who told reporters on Friday night that America needs a "new New Deal." The subprime loan crisis is "sinking whole cities," he lamented -- "sinking the whole economic ship." Dismissing the administration's proposed economic stimulus package as the equivalent of handing every American a $100 Wal-Mart gift card, Jackson repeatedly declared during his speech, "We need to put America back to work."

Greatest Generation 2.0
Several of the convention's presenters spoke directly to students about the responsibility they have to become the next Greatest Generation by getting involved in public service and by making history in this election.

The 2008 contest has already seen impressive turnout from young voters, and in the opening session of the mock convention, Kaine praised participants for their demonstration of civic engagement. Many students agreed that the event sparked their interest in politics and inspired them to vote in both their primary and the general election. Student leaders boasted that the event went flawlessly, and Friedman reiterated his confidence in the convention's prediction.

After his South Carolina victory and Kennedy's endorsement, what kind of momentum will Obama be able to build, with only nine days between his Palmetto State success and the 22-state deluge on Feb. 5? This primary contest has already defied expectations and proved many predictions wrong. Will August's Democratic National Convention reach the same conclusion as Saturday's mock convention? One thing W&L's students could have confidently predicted is that they will have to wait beyond Feb. 5 to find out, as the battle for delegates promises to rage on -- this time on a national stage.

More photos from the mock convention
Jim Webb lambasted the Bush administration's economic policies, saying that the country is being divided into "three Americas."	Webb addresses the crowd first on Saturday morning, blaming congressional Republicans for deadlock on Capitol Hill.	Student support was split between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, with Obama gaining a slight edge in the popularity contest.
Strong support in delegate-rich states such as California and New York put Clinton over the top to win the nomination.	Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden declined to endorse any of the remaining candidates in the race after his father, Joseph Biden, dropped out in early January.	The first female vice presidential candidate, Geraldine Ferraro, who was on the ticket in 1984, discussed the historic candidacies of Obama and Clinton.
Texas Rep. Charles Wilson spoke briefly but was a crowd favorite at the event.	The Rev. Jesse Jackson wowed the crowd late Friday, likening the Bush administration's economic stimulus plan to giving every American a $100 Wal-Mart gift card.	Jackson and former Georgia Sen. Max Cleland confer after their back-to-back appearances Friday night.