By Kevin Friedl, National Journal
© National Journal Group Inc.
Monday, Feb. 4, 2008

Despite all of the attention and money devoted to the Democratic presidential contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, they awarded a total of just 137 convention delegates. On Super Tuesday, nearly 1,700 will be up for grabs. With so much at stake in a contest gone suddenly nationwide, both Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama are grappling with tough strategic questions about how and where to broadcast their paid messages.

	Clinton and Obama are gambling on where to hit the airwaves before Super Tuesday.

Radio, direct mailings, and Internet outreach are all important ways of connecting with voters, but with so many states voting at once, TV remains king. "There really is no other choice," says Democratic strategist Dan Gerstein. "You have to find ways to touch as many people as possible."

Even more than Clinton, Obama needs to spend his TV ad dollars carefully. The free media he received last week from winning South Carolina and picking up major endorsements definitely helped him, but the suddenly expanded playing field still slopes uphill for the senator from Illinois. Clinton remains the bigger household name, and polls show her maintaining her lead nationally as well as in delegate-rich California and New York.

According to data that National Journal obtained from TNS Media Intelligence/Campaign Media Analysis Group, as of Jan. 27, Obama had spent more than $3.8 million on targeted TV ad buys in states that vote on Tuesday and bought an additional $540,000 worth of national cable time. Since then, he has expanded his advertising into 21 of the 22 states holding Democratic primaries or caucuses on February 5, for a total cost of $10.9 million.

The biographical TV spot that Obama is running nationally could help to neutralize Clinton's brand-name advantage, but Obama's campaign is also thinking locally. By outspending Clinton in Southern states, he could potentially replicate his big win in South Carolina and pile up enough delegates to help counter Clinton's edge elsewhere.

Clinton's ad focus on California and the Northeast suggests a push to maximize her leads in the expensive but populous coastal media markets. Because she is better known than her lone remaining rival, she is freer to narrowly focus her ad buys and to concentrate her message on the increasingly important economic picture. "Running bio ads would be a waste of her money," says Democratic media consultant Bud Jackson. "She's trying to take advantage of an issue that's at the forefront of people's minds."

Clinton has spent about $8 million on Super Tuesday ads running in 16 states. Of the six states where her campaign is ceding the airwaves to Obama, four are holding caucuses rather than primaries. Obama's campaign has indicated it expects to do well in such states, which tend to favor the candidate with the best grassroots organization and the most dedicated supporters.

In many ways, both candidates are in electoral terra incognita. Super Tuesday has never been quite so superlative before, and because the Democrats have no winner-take-all states, every February 5 congressional district is a potential battlefield. With John Edwards out of the race, Obama and Clinton will be tweaking their last-minute ads to woo his supporters. And both sides have to be prepared, if Tuesday's vote is indecisive, to hit other expensive ad markets in the weeks ahead.