By James A. Barnes, NationalJournal.com
© National Journal Group Inc.
Wednesday, Feb. 13, 2008

Sens. Barack Obama of Illinois and John McCain of Arizona both swept their respective parties' presidential primaries in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia on Tuesday. With his sizable margins of victory in all three primaries, Obama took the lead in the delegate count over Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York. And McCain's victories put him back on what appears to be an inexorable march to his party's nomination after embarrassing losses to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in the Louisiana primary and the Kansas caucuses on Feb. 9.

	The victories for Obama signaled potentially important breakthroughs for him in relatively large, heterogeneous states.

Obama's success in Maryland was not unexpected: The Democratic primary electorate's mix of well-educated whites and African Americans was tailor made for a big Obama win. But Virginia -- which has fewer black primary voters and a more rural, less economically well-off electorate -- was thought to be a state where Clinton might have a chance for at least a respectable showing.

With nearly all the state's precincts reporting, Obama prevailed with 64 percent to Clinton's 35 percent. And with more than 90 percent of the precincts reporting in Maryland, Obama won roughly 60 percent to 37 percent for Clinton. In the District, with 98 percent of the precincts in, Obama won 75 percent to 24 percent.

The victories for Obama signaled potentially important breakthroughs for him in relatively large, heterogeneous states. Obama edged out Clinton among white voters in Virginia, carrying 52 percent to Clinton's 47 percent, according to the National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research and Mitofsky International for AP, ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX and NBC. Among white men, Obama also won with a comfortable margin: 58 percent to Clinton's 40 percent. In Maryland, Clinton carried white voters, 52 percent to 42 percent, but Obama was more competitive among white men. He narrowly carried that group with 48 percent, compared with the 45 percent who supported Clinton. White women stuck by Clinton in both states.

Obama's competitiveness with Clinton among white voters, especially white men, will be critical to him in the next key primary contest in Wisconsin -- a state where his mainstay coalition of black voters is relatively insignificant.

Although the exit polls' Latino sample sizes were small, they show Obama also managing to run well among those voters in both states. The Latino vote has delivered big margins to Clinton in states like Arizona, California and Nevada, and it is essential to her prospects in the Texas primary on March 4. In Virginia, Obama edged out Clinton among Latino voters, 53 percent to 47 percent. Clinton carried Latinos in Maryland, 55 percent to 45 percent. But given the margin of error in that finding, that's essentially a draw.

If Obama can even come close to splitting the Latino vote with Clinton, he's well ahead, given the overwhelming advantage he has among black voters. Obama won almost nine out of 10 black votes cast in Maryland and Virginia.

The Illinois senator's victories in Maryland and Virginia were sweeping in other ways, as well. He carried every age group, both men and women, and voters in all education brackets. He won self-identified Democrats and carried independents by more than 2 to 1.

In Virginia, Obama won more than 60 percent of the vote in the Washington, D.C., suburbs and more than 70 percent of the vote in the southeastern portion of the state dominated by Norfolk, Hampton Roads and Virginia Beach -- both key regions for any Democratic statewide candidate in a general election. He also carried Richmond and the vast central part of the state. Clinton won the Shenandoah Valley area, the traditional GOP base and the southwestern portion of the state, where former Gov. Mark Warner (D) made inroads in his 2001 election victory but voters tend to favor Republicans. Obama carried all of the top 21 vote-producing counties in the primary.

In Maryland, Obama was beating Clinton by a nearly 3-to-1 margin in Baltimore and more than 2 to 1 in the Washington, D.C., suburbs. He only narrowly topped Clinton in the Baltimore suburbs, however, and in the state's rural west and Eastern Shore, Obama barely got 50 percent of the vote.

GOP: McCain Gets Clean Win Without Locking In Conservatives
Like Obama, the presumptive GOP nominee had a good night. McCain won 51 percent of the vote to Huckabee's 40 percent in Virginia, and 55 percent to the Arkansan's 30 percent in Maryland. McCain swept the District, 68 percent to 17 percent for his only remaining substantive rival.

While McCain's victory in the Potomac Primary was not as demographically broad as Obama's, in terms of delegates, it appeared to be complete. Thanks to the GOP's winner-takes-all rules, McCain won all of Virginia's 60 delegates allocated to the candidate who takes the statewide vote. He also captured all 37 of Maryland's delegates, leading in all eight of the state's congressional districts as well as the statewide vote. He won all 16 delegates in the District of Columbia, which are awarded to the overall winner of the D.C. vote.

But McCain's victory in Virginia was diminished somewhat because he was again unable to carry the votes of conservatives, who made up two-thirds of the state's GOP primary electorate. Overall, Huckabee won 51 percent of conservatives, compared with 38 percent who supported McCain.

That figure isn't exactly clear cut. Among those voters who described themselves as "somewhat" conservative (34 percent of Virginia's GOP primary voters), exactly half backed McCain, while 37 percent sided with Huckabee. Among Republican primary voters who called themselves "very" conservative (31 percent of Virginia's GOP vote), a whopping 65 percent supported Huckabee, compared with just 25 percent who backed McCain.

Evangelical and born-again Christian voters in Virginia also swung solidly behind Huckabee, voting 2 to 1 for the Arkansan.

And McCain lagged with Virginia's swing voters as well. Among voters in the GOP primary who had only some college education or an associate degree -- quintessential members of the working and middle class -- Huckabee actually won 51 percent to McCain's 39 percent. McCain handily carried voters with a college or post-graduate degree.

Virginia GOP primary voters who described themselves as independents, a group that has helped propel McCain to his early primary victories, were essentially split between the two contenders: Huckabee edged out McCain among independents who voted in the GOP primary, 40 percent to 38 percent. At the same time, McCain only won 48 percent of primary votes cast in suburbs; Huckabee won 43 percent.

Regionally, McCain's victory was also less than overwhelming. Although he swept the statewide suburban vote by more than 2 to 1 over Huckabee, turnout there was noticeably down for a GOP primary -- which could be an ominous sign for Republicans in the fall. McCain lost the Shenandoah Valley and the southwest significantly: Fifty-six percent of Republican primary-goers in this portion of the state voted for Huckabee while only 38 percent backed the GOP front-runner. In the rest of the state, McCain beat Huckabee, but he was held to under 50 percent of the vote.

In Maryland, McCain's victory was broader. He actually won the overall conservative vote, 44 percent to 36 percent; voters with some college, 53 percent to 34 percent; and independents, 52 percent to 21 percent. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas won 15 percent of Maryland's self-described independents.

McCain carried all of the state's main geographic regions. As in Virginia, he demolished Huckabee in Maryland's D.C. suburbs by more than a 2-to-1 margin. He carried Baltimore as well as its suburbs, close to a 2-to-1 margin. And he carried the western rural portion of the state as well as the Eastern Shore. Even more impressive, McCain won or was leading in all 23 of the state's counties.