By James A. Barnes, NationalJournal.com
© National Journal Group Inc.
Wednesday, Feb. 20, 2008

Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois ran his winning streak to 10 on Tuesday, capturing the Wisconsin primary and Hawaii caucuses and solidifying his lead in the Democratic nominating contest over Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York. Obama's victory in Wisconsin, 59 percent to 41 percent, indicated that Obama's coalition is growing while Clinton's shrinks. And if that trend continues, Clinton's supposed firewall in Ohio and Texas, which hold primaries on March 4, could be in serious jeopardy.

	After her string of losses, the primary and caucus calendar now becomes a little more forgiving for Clinton.

Meanwhile, Sen. John McCain of Arizona handily defeated former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in Wisconsin's GOP primary, 56 percent to 38 percent. AP and CNN also projected that McCain would handily defeat Huckabee in the Washington primary, but the exact margin might not be known for days because the state conducts most of its voting by mail, and ballots could be postmarked up until primary day.

Obama was leading in the early returns from Washington, but because the state already allocated all of its 78 delegates after its Feb. 9 caucuses, the Democratic primary was just a beauty contest. Only Democrats held caucuses in Hawaii; Obama swept Clinton there, with about 75 percent of the vote in both congressional districts.

But arguably the most important story of the Feb. 19 nominating contests was Obama's sweeping victory in Wisconsin, a state where Clinton had held the lead in the pre-Super Tuesday polls. And while the Clinton team earlier downplayed the notion that the momentum building behind the Obama campaign in recent weeks was going to make a significant impact on subsequent primaries, it's hard to find another way to explain the scope of his win in Wisconsin.

Geography & Demographics
With most precincts reporting, Obama had won or was leading in all eight of Wisconsin's congressional districts. Only in the 1st District in the southeast corner of the state -- with its mix of blue-collar workers in Racine, Chicago exurbs along the Illinois border and Milwaukee suburbs to the north -- was Clinton close. Even there, AP reported that Obama was leading, 52 percent to 47 percent, with almost three-quarters of precincts reporting.

Obama won the two largest vote-producing counties, Milwaukee and Dane (home to the University of Wisconsin in Madison), by roughly 2-to-1 margins. And he carried many blue-collar industrial counties like Brown (home to Green Bay), Racine and Rock (home to Janesville). Election-night returns found that of the state's 72 counties, Clinton carried only 10 and all were relatively small.

The National Election Pool exit poll for the Wisconsin primary, conducted by Edison Research and Mitofsky International for AP, ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX and NBC, underscored the growth in Obama's electoral coalition. Obama carried white voters by 54 percent to 45 percent and white male voters by a substantial 63 percent to 34 percent.

He carried all age groups under 60, but he did particularly well among 18- to 29-year-olds: Overall, he won young voters over Clinton by a 70-percent to 26-percent margin, and among whites that age, he captured 66 percent to Clinton's 29 percent. Younger voters overall made up 16 percent of the total Democratic primary vote, a relatively large share compared to previous primaries this year. Wisconsin has same-day registration, which may partially explain the strong showing of young people at the polls.

Obama won self-identified Democrats, 53 percent to 46 percent -- essentially tying Clinton among white Democrats, who chose Clinton by 51 percent to 48 percent. But Wisconsin is an open primary where independents and Republicans can participate and Obama carried both of those groups handily, 64 percent to 33 percent and 72 percent to 28 percent, respectively.

Even among Clinton's core female constituency, she split her vote 50-50 with Obama. He carried all income and education brackets, although Clinton did relatively better among those with a high school education or less and those with a family income of less than $30,000.

Clinton Stares Down Texas & Ohio
After her string of losses, the primary and caucus calendar now becomes a little more forgiving for Clinton. She has two weeks to reinvigorate her campaign before the showdowns in Ohio and Texas on March 4, when Rhode Island and Vermont will also hold primaries. Ohio has a larger black vote than Wisconsin, but the white vote is traditionally more working-class and made up of fewer college-degree holders -- both favorable constituencies for Clinton.

But record turnouts in the Democratic primaries this year could mean that Obama has the potential to expand the Ohio Democratic primary electorate by bringing out better-educated voters and independents, both strong groups for him.

It is also worth remembering that in the 1984 Ohio Democratic presidential primary, then-Sen. Gary Hart of Colorado, a new-style Democrat, narrowly defeated former Vice President Walter Mondale, the darling of organized labor. And in that contest, Mondale had the support of nearly every top Ohio lawmaker, including then-Gov. Richard Celeste and Secretary of State Sherrod Brown, who is now a senator.

The way Texas allocates its delegates, including picking one-third in a caucus, presents some challenges for Clinton, but a high turnout of Hispanic voters could still be her lifeline. Some Democratic analysts caution against reading too much in the exit poll from the Virginia that showed Obama narrowly carrying Hispanics because of the small sample size in the poll.

"We haven't really learned that Obama can carry Hispanic voters," cautioned one party operative, adding, "If he's competitive with Hispanic voters two weeks from now, I think it's over [for Clinton]."

With a Democratic presidential debate on Thursday in Austin, Texas, it will be interesting to see how aggressively Clinton takes on Obama. Their last televised debate was before Super Tuesday, and it was a civil affair with relatively few sparks. But Clinton's back wasn't up against the wall the way it is now.

At a Tuesday campaign rally in Youngstown, Ohio, Clinton seemed ready to draw some distinctions with her opponent: "Both Sen. Obama and I would make history. But only one of us is ready on day one to be commander in chief, ready to manage our economy, and ready to defeat the Republicans," Clinton said. "Only one of us has spent 35 years being a doer, a fighter and a champion for those who need a voice. That is what I would bring to the White House. That is the choice in this election."

A Breezy Time For McCain
McCain, meanwhile, continued his methodical march to the Republican presidential nomination; very little in the results from Wisconsin, at least, indicated Huckabee will be able to stop him. McCain carried Milwaukee and its suburbs with more than 60 percent of the vote. He carried the southern tier of the state as well as the Fox River Valley -- a traditional battleground in the general elections -- and the dairy-farming communities in the northeastern part of the state. Only in the more sparsely populated northwestern part of the state was Huckabee able to run even with McCain.

The exit poll for the GOP Wisconsin primary voters found that McCain won 48 percent of those who identified themselves as conservatives, while 42 percent supported Huckabee. Among the Republican hard-right, Huckabee is still a modest favorite: Those who described themselves as "very conservative" in Wisconsin chose him over McCain, 49 percent to 38 percent. But McCain handily won the votes of GOP primary voters who described themselves as only "somewhat conservative," 55 percent to 36 percent, and he swamped Huckabee among self-described moderates, 70 percent to 23 percent.