By Kirk Victor, National Journal
© National Journal Group Inc.
Monday, March 24, 2008

Not since 1960 has a presidential nominee's running mate played an arguably pivotal role in the outcome of an election. Sen. John F. Kennedy of Massachusetts surprised just about everybody by picking his rival, Senate Majority Leader Lyndon Baines Johnson of Texas, for the No. 2 spot on his ticket. The Yankee senator then proceeded to carry Johnson's state in the Deep South -- ever so narrowly. That triumph helped to produce JFK's razor-thin victory over Vice President Nixon.

	In filling out his ticket, the presumptive nominee has to reconcile many competing factors.

The Johnson example is clearly the exception. "People vote for the president -- witness George Herbert Walker Bush's selection of Dan Quayle," conservative activist Paul Weyrich said, referring to the 1988 campaign in which Bush, the Republican presidential nominee, picked an unknown and seemingly callow senator from Indiana as his running mate. "There was enormous controversy over that. And in the end, it didn't mean a hill of beans."

But even if a vice presidential nominee is unlikely to sway voters, the choice still sends a powerful signal to various constituencies. It also provides voters with what is often their first impression of what the presidential nominee really values.

"It's the biggest decision that a nominee makes that shows the public how they make decisions," said Charlie Black, the top political adviser to John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee. "We know from history that vice presidential nominees often get to be president.... It gives them a leg up on future elections. It's a huge decision."

And, fairly or not, the decision assumes more importance than usual in McCain's case because he will be 72 on Inauguration Day -- which would make him the oldest person ever elected to a first term as president -- and because he has had cancer. He had extensive facial surgery in August 2000 after melanoma was found on his left temple.

Folks on and off Capitol Hill also say that McCain, perhaps more than other recent nominees, has more competing considerations to weigh in selecting a running mate. They cite his famous maverick ways, which at times have put him at odds with Republican colleagues, and his acknowledgement that economics is not his strong suit.

"The number of factors that McCain must take into account in choosing a running mate is quite extensive: age, region of the country, ideology, and economic experience," said a veteran political observer, unaffiliated with any campaign. "When you add them up and try to come up with an algorithm that solves his problems, it's really sort of like trying to solve Fermat's Last Theorem."

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., one of McCain's closest allies on Capitol Hill, told National Journal, "I think what John will do at the end of the day is pick somebody primarily with the idea in mind of being able to continue policies that will lead to victory in the war on terror, and who has an understanding of where he would like to take the country domestically, and is willing to pick up the gauntlet, so to speak."

Of course, wrapping up the nomination more than five months before the Republican National Convention, which will be held the first week in September, gives McCain plenty of time to cogitate about his choice. By contrast, the battle between the leading Democratic presidential contenders, Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton, could last until their party's convention in late August. Both candidates have said that it would be "presumptuous" to talk seriously about running mates at this point.

Meanwhile, even though McCain has not even established a vetting process, the senator from Arizona will surely get plenty of mostly unsolicited advice in the coming weeks and months. Some suggested do's and don'ts are already circulating.

Avoid Washington. Why pick another lawmaker for the ticket when Congress's approval numbers are at rock bottom? Democrats are busily painting McCain, who was first elected to Congress in 1982, as a Washington insider.

"We need someone who is younger, a solid conservative, and someone who can fill the position," House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, says. "That would point probably to a Republican governor."

Similarly, former Senate Minority Whip Trent Lott, R-Miss., says, "I don't think it matters that much if he should pick a senator, although I don't think he will because, first of all, every senator is still going to be critical in the votes in the Senate [given the chamber's close partisan divide].... I suspect he will look for a governor or a non-senator that can do the job."

Former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., agrees: "He's a senator -- running against another senator. Having someone with executive experience, someone outside Washington, I think, sends a good message."

Meanwhile, Graham dismissed the frequent speculation that makes him McCain's choice. "I don't think I add any value to the ticket. It's an honor to be considered. I like right where I am at -- I think this is the best way for me to serve my state and my country, being in the Senate.... What I have to offer John is a comfortable relationship, a confidant.... I will tell him what I think. I think he finds that we have similar views of the problems [the nation faces]. I am somebody who can help him move legislation and he can bounce ideas off of."

Reassure the Base. McCain has always had a difficult time winning the hearts of hard-charging conservatives. Even after the senator from Arizona had all but wrapped up the nomination, self-identified "very conservative" voters in the Texas primary preferred his rival, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, 50 percent to 38 percent.

Conservative ire and distrust toward McCain is stirred by his support for a new path to citizenship for illegal immigrants and for campaign finance reform. McCain's choice of a running mate could potentially improve his standing with the Right -- or alienate social conservatives.

"If he selects somebody bad from our point of view, it's going to be very difficult," Weyrich says. "It will reinforce prejudice against him. If he selects somebody pretty good, it'll be moderately helpful.... It would help if he selected Mitt Romney, but he won't." Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, clashed bitterly with McCain during the primary campaign but later endorsed him.

Weyrich warns that if McCain were to choose former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge, the first Homeland Security secretary, conservatives would be upset. "He is pro-abortion. He's not in agreement with the Right on a whole slew of issues."

Of course, there is a downside to appeasing the conservative base: McCain could undermine his appeal to independents.

Emphasize 'Change.' Calls for change have resonated with voters throughout this year's presidential primary campaign. Democrats are already arguing that McCain is "McBush," that his presidency would be the equivalent of a third Bush term. "You can make the argument that John McCain is a well-known maverick, somebody not afraid to take things on -- and, 'Gee, another maverick [as his running mate] reinforces [the message of] change,' " said veteran Republican strategist Bill Greener.

Others note that two mavericks on the ticket would give conservatives pause. "If you pick someone who looks a lot like him, who's a maverick within the party, then you have trouble motivating activists within the party to give money and come out for you on Election Day," says Barry Burden, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin.

In the end, Lott said, McCain's best choice might be "an attractive, articulate man or woman with good conservative credentials that could be the next president after a term or two and brings real pizzazz to the ticket." He asserted that former Rep. Rob Portman, 52, would be such a pick. "He's a handsome, personable, smart, conservative guy with a beautiful family. And he's from a critical state, Ohio, and has been a congressman, has been head of OMB, and a trade rep."

Greener adds, however, that, more than political calculations, the most important factor for McCain should be whether the person is someone he feels compatible with and believes could take the reins at a moment's notice. The GOP strategist thinks that the public will respond positively to a choice that does not reflect the all-too-typical balancing of factors such as geography, ideology, and age. "Like your mom and dad told you, try to do the right thing," Greener advises.

--Staff Correspondent Richard E. Cohen contributed to this report.